November 28, 2022

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July floods in Germany and Belgium are well connected with global warming

Many homes in Schultz were swept away by flooding in the Ahr River in mid-July in West Germany.

Damage to more than 200 people and billions of euros: Large number of floods Destroyed Germany and Belgium In mid-July, he was to blame for climate change. According to a study released on Tuesday, August 24, this intense episode is 9 times more likely to be caused by warming due to human activity. There is also climate change “Increases rainfall by 3% to 19% per day”, According to scientists World Weather Attribute (WWA), Which brings together experts from various research institutes around the world.

On July 14 and 15, heavy flooding killed 190 people in Germany and 38 in Belgium. Germany needs to allocate 30 billion euros for the reconstruction of disaster-stricken areas, and the issue of catastrophic climate emergency is at the center of public debate, just weeks before decisive elections at the end of September, followed by President Angela Merkel.

Report: “We lost everything, but at least we have life”: Bad Nunahr-Ahrweiler
On July 15, 2021, a train sank in Kortel, Germany

Increased probability and severity

To the 39 international scientists gathered under the WWA banner, no doubt: “Climate change increases probability but intensifies” The events of July, Frank Greenenkamp of the German Meteorological Service, pioneered this study, said in an online presentation. There is the chapter “Historically Recorded Rainfall Records for Huge Beats” In the affected areas, the researchers say.

An increase in rainfall is an expected result of global warming because a physical phenomenon increases the humidity of the atmosphere by about 7% with each additional degree.

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This is the second study to clearly blame global warming for the growing natural disasters this summer. WWA previously calculated “Thermal Dome” It diverted west of Canada and the US in late June “Almost impossible” Without the effects of climate change.

It heats up faster than expected

In early August, the International Committee on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN. Shock report, Pointing to global warming faster and stronger than the threat, threatens humanity with disasters “Unprecedented”. According to the Paris Agreement the + 1.5 ° C limit – not exceeding the ideal target – could be reached in 2030, ten years earlier than estimated. The catastrophic effects – drought, fire or flood – are already being felt around the world.

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The authors ran different models to assess how global warming affected the Ahr and Erfth riverbeds in the worst-affected region and the maximum rainfall of one or two days in the Muse Valley in Belgium. But a large region comprising these two countries and the neighboring Netherlands are less affected.

They noticed a “Strengthening trend”, Though one remains “The big difference” From one year to another. They also assessed the possibility of a July-like episode occurring in Western Europe every four hundred years. That is, for sure, the probability of such a catastrophe in the 400s every year. And they “Will become more common” If warming continues, the study indicates.

So, this “It’s important to know how [réduire] Impact on these chapters and their implications “, Said Morton von Alst, one of the authors, director of the Red Cross and Crescent Climate Center. Because, “Unfortunately, people are mostly ready … but for an earlier disaster.”.

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World with AFP

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