Stock futures swayed between gains and losses early Wednesday morning as investors picked up the flow of earnings for the 2020 election, which so far has shown no clear signs of a White House winner.
As of around 5 a.m. CET, the S&P 500 was up 0.6% and the Nasdaq outperformed by more than 2.7%. The Dow declined by around 50 points.
Results so far suggest a presidential race too short to be named, with a number of consecutive battlefield states. including PennsylvaniaIt is still unlikely to see any results in the next few days.
According to the Associated Press, former Vice President Joe Biden had 238 votes and President Donald Trump 213 at 4:45 a.m.CET. Candidates need 270 votes to be named the winner.
States urged Trump: Ky., W. Va., SC, Ala., Miss., Tenn., Okla., Ark., Ind., ND, SD, Wyo., La., Neb., Kan., Mo., Idaho, Utah , Ohio, Iowa, Mont., Fla., Texas
States urged Biden: Vt., Va., Conn., Del., Ill., Md., Mass., NJ, RI, NY, NM, DC, Colo., NH, Calif., Ore., Wash., Hawaii, Minn., Ariz., Maine (3 of 4 votes)
The deluge of incoming results increased the volatility during the overnight session. Contracts on major stock indices opened higher at the start of trading overnight, but gains on the Dow and S&P 500 futures declined as the race intensified, even as the Associated Press predicted Trump to swing – Florida state would win, believed by a number of experts go to Biden. Other states viewed as flaws ultimately fell in Biden’s favor, including Arizona, which Trump won in 2016.
However, the contracts on the Nasdaq have increased significantly. At around 10:15 p.m. ET, the Nasdaq futures rose nearly 4% to trip a breaker and cap further gains. The index held up more than 2.5% at 4:45 a.m. ET and traders piled into technology stocks that had served as a safe haven sector during much of the pandemic amid uncertainty about the economic outlook.
In the bond market, US Treasury bond yields fell above the long end of the curve to run off much of their advance from the past few weeks. The 10-year yield fell back below 80 basis points as investors withdrew expectations of a democratic sweep that likely would have resulted in higher government spending.
Overseas, European stocks were also volatile and slipped out into the open before losses were reduced and then pushed higher Trump prematurely claimed to have won the election at a night address in the White House.
“This is a scam in the American Republic. This is an embarrassment for our country, “said Trump. “We prepared to win this election. To be honest, we won this election. “
Trump, who previously questioned the correctness of the postal vote, said he would “go to the US Supreme Court” about the election results, opening up the possibility of a lengthy election. competitive election market The participants had prepared to dive into the results. Biden’s campaign for his party suggested this ready to fight Trump in court.
However, the markets have so far been “remarkably calm and surprisingly not really assessing much risk or concern about a long, competitive battle,” Deutsche Bank analysts, including Jim Reid, said on an overnight note. “The tax incentives look longer now than they did last night,” they added.
However, other experts warned that ongoing uncertainty about the election result could trigger continued volatility in markets in the coming days.
“A conclusive outcome can take a few days or more and potentially fuel market volatility and leave the possibility of a controversial outcome open,” analysts at the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in a note on Wednesday morning. “We prefer to see through volatility and stick to positions of high conviction when selling risk assets. The likely low trading volume during this period could exacerbate market movements. “
The election was against an increasingly dire pandemic in the United States. More than 93,000 cases were reported nationwide as of Monday. This is the second highest daily total since the coronavirus pandemic began. according to the New York Times. Well Over 9 million cases in total have been registered in the US since the pandemic began, and more than 230,000 deaths have occurred across the country. And the economic impact of the virus has been severe: Over 11 million jobs have been lost Since the beginning of the pandemic, the unemployment rate has been almost 8%.
4:50 ET Wednesday: Stock futures fluctuate with uncertain election results
Here were the key moves in the markets as of 4:50 p.m. ET on Wednesday
S&P 500 Futures (ES = F): 3,382.75, plus 21.25 points or 0.63%
Dow Futures (YM = F.): 27,342.00, minus 34 points or 0.12%
Nasdaq Futures (NQ = F.): 11,552.00, plus 286.25 points or 2.54%
Raw (CL = F.): + $ 0.58 (+ 1.54%) to $ 38.24 per barrel
Gold (GC = F.)– $ 17.50 (-0.92%) to $ 1,892.90 per ounce
10-year treasury (^ TNX): -8.5 bps to give 0.796%