While Joe Biden slightly beats Donald Trump in national polls two days before election day, a new survey from Iowa on Saturday night, the president showed up seven points.
Trump was enjoying the same Iowa then to lead With Hillary Clinton days before he won the 2016 elections by narrow victories in key Midwestern states, the news could rock the Democrats, who await Tuesday’s decision.
In the poll that Selzer & Co carried out between October 26 and 29 for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, Trump led Biden with 48% to 41%. In September, the same poll found the two men were 47% committed.
Trump won four years ago Iowa by 9.4 points. The Selzer poll included 814 likely voters and had an error rate of 3.4%. Election Bureau president J Ann Selzer said men and political independents continued to support Trump.
“The president holds demographics he won four years ago in Iowa, and that would give someone some level of comfort in their position,” Selzer told the registry. “There is a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016.”
Selzer added that “none of the candidates scored 50%, there is still something to play here”. But she also said data showed that 94% of “likely voters” had decided how to vote, including 98% of Biden supporters and 95% of Trump supporters, and only 4% of likely voters said they did are still convincing.
Many Iowa voters have already cast their votes. As in other states, early and postal voting has increased dramatically. More than half of likely voters said they had already cast ballots, the register reported. Early votes are generally held in Biden’s favor, with Trump anticipating a surge in support on election day himself.
Response to the poll in Iowa was mixed among survey experts. FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver wrote that Trump’s poll was not a wild swing across the board.
“One thing to consider when you see a late electoral movement in a state is whether the movement is baseline,” he said wrote. “For example, in Iowa, our model thought Trump should have been three points ahead based on polls in similar states, steady swing, etc. It’s pretty red.
“The Selzer poll, which took our average from Biden +0.1 to Trump +1.8, about as big a shift as you will see, brought the race more in line with the basics there. The same is true if Biden were to do some rough polls in Texas tomorrow, for example. “
Nate Cohn of the New York Times, written down that Selzer’s poll was “the President’s best poll in a long time – perhaps in the election cycle.
“However, it’s also worth noting that Selzer can be wrong and was earlier. No pollster got promoted, but in the end everyone in this business is exposed to a sampling error and so on. If you expect perfection, you won’t get it.
“And this Selzer Iowa poll is on its own, not just in Iowa, but in terms of history as a whole. Every national poll has shown that Biden is way ahead of Clinton among white voters [and] white working class voters. He excelled in the white northern plain. “
Both candidates are still fighting for Iowa. Biden was hosting a drive-in rally in Des Moines on Friday, and Trump, who was in the state in October, was due to host a rally in Dubuque on Sunday.
Biden was national ahead from Trump 51% to 41% in the latest Reuters / Ipsos poll. New polls on Sunday also brought Biden to market nationally and in major battlefield states, though the races in Pennsylvania and Florida, two of the most competitive prizes, were tightening.
NBC News showed Biden’s national lead of 10% from 11% two weeks ago. CBS News shown Bid up with early voters and Trump are counting on a surge on election day. A poll by the New York Times / Siena College found that Biden gained 11 points in Wisconsin, six points in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and three points in Florida – all states that voted for Trump in 2016.
Trump didn’t seem concerned.
“Our numbers are looking VERY good everywhere,” he said tweeted early Sunday. “Sleepy Joe is already starting to withdraw from certain states. The radical left is going under! “
Two days before what is perhaps the most momentous US elections of the modern era, there is plenty of room for nerves on both sides of the partisan difference.
At NBC’s Meet the Press, Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster, insisted that the election “really is a referendum Donald Trump“And said,” The other thing is that the numbers were really stable in terms of that [Biden] now lead at 10 points. … There has been no movement that really suggests that Donald Trump is on the rise. “
Republican pollster Bill McInturff said the result would be states with “large numbers of white non-college members who have not yet voted”.
“They vote among the roughly three out of ten people who say they have not yet voted Donald Trump by almost 30 points, ”he said. “… Look at the states with large numbers of white non-college states that haven’t voted yet: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. And that election will come back to these states. “